Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Reddit KPI on Kalshi
If Reddit Inc. reports Above 132000000 daily active uniques in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 130 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 130 million | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 101 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 132 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 132 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 128 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 128 million | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 126 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 126 million | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 124 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 124 million | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 122 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 122 million | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 120 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 120 million | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reddit Inc. report Above 118 million daily active uniques in Q1 2027? · Above 118 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.