What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.35.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Palestine recognition on Kalshi

If the United States of America recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, the United Nations, Fox News, Al Jazeera, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, France24, ABC, BBC, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

9% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will recognize Palestine? · Japan	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,436	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Italy	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	14,496	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Finland	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	10,610	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · New Zealand	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	10,110	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Austria	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	8,820	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Greece	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	7,337	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · USA	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	7,032	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Switzerland	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	6,944	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Germany	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	6,723	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Panama	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	6,714	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · The Netherlands	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	6,045	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · Singapore	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	945	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Who will recognize Palestine? · South Korea	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	484	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.