What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 39¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.14.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 41% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 39%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which states will pass a new congressional map? on Kalshi

If a new congressional district map is enacted in Wisconsin before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: each state's official government websites, Reuters, the Associated Press.

Market says (typical open contract)

39%

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

78% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
39¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.14	40.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Wisconsin pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Wisconsin	75¢	75%	1.3¢	—	50%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Washington pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Washington	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Virginia pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Virginia	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will South Carolina pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · South Carolina	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Pennsylvania pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Pennsylvania	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	88%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Oregon pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Oregon	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will New York pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · New York	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	36%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will New Jersey pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · New Jersey	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Mississippi pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Mississippi	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Missouri pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Missouri	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Minnesota pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Minnesota	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	88%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Maryland pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Maryland	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	60%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Kansas pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Kansas	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Indiana pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Indiana	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Illinois pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Illinois	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	36%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Colorado pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Colorado	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Arizona pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election? · Arizona	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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