Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Global remittances received on Kalshi
If global personal remittances received in 2026 are above $950 billion, according to the World Bank’s July 2028 WDI archive or the subsequent qualifying archive specified below, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: World Bank.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5,385 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $950 billion? · Above $950 billion | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 2,941 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $1,000 billion? · Above $1,000 billion | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 2,426 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $1,100 billion? · Above $1,100 billion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,919 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 577 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $850 billion? · Above $850 billion | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 300 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $750 billion? · Above $750 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will global personal remittances received in 2026 be above $1,050 billion? · Above $1,050 billion | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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