What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 84¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.56.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 85% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 84%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Rideshare app downloads array on Kalshi

If the Carbon Arc Rideshare app downloads array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 95, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Carbon Arc.

Market says (typical open contract)

84%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

32% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
84¢ (now)	0.9¢	$0.56	84.9%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 100? · Above 100	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	9,611	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 105? · Above 105	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	2,267	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 90? · Above 90	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	181	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 115? · Above 115	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	32	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 95? · Above 95	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 85? · Above 85	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 80? · Above 80	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 120? · Above 120	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will Rideshare app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 110? · Above 110	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.