What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 92¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.28.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 93% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 92%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Rivian KPI on Kalshi

If Rivian Automotive Inc. reports Above 74000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

92%

Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
92¢ (now)	0.5¢	$0.28	92.5%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 46000	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	15,557	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 52000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 52000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	14,264	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 48000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 48000	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	12,271	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 50000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 50000	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	9,679	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 40000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 40000	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	9,274	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 44000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 44000	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	7,018	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 42000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 42000	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	6,742	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report above 68000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 68000	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	2,018	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report above 66000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 66000	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	1,346	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 60000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 60000	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	19%	1,169	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report above 64000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 64000	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	1,099	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 70000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 70000	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	1,065	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report above 62000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 62000	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	553	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 56000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 56000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	532	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 54000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 54000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	425	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 72000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 72000	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	260	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 38000 total vehicles delivered in 2026? · Above 38000	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	161	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 74000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 74000	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	21	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 58000 total vehicles delivered in fiscal 2026? · Above 58000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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