What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 56¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.52.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 58% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 56%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Tesla Roadster starting price on Kalshi

If the first price announced for Tesla Roadster (second generation) by Tesla, Inc. is at least $400000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, the Associated Press, Axios, Tesla, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, The New York Times, Semafor, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, ABC, Reuters, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

56%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

87% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
56¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.54	57.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $300,000	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	55%	2,150	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $250,000	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	2,035	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $325,000	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,473	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $350,000	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	1,276	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $400,000	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	1,233	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $225,000	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,085	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $150,000	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	665	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $275,000	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	87%	505	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $200,000	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	494	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $375,000	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	40	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will Tesla Roadster (second generation) cost? · At least $175,000	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	18	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.