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will person perform role in production on Kalshi
If The Strokes performs as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 61 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tate McRae perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Tate McRae | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,187 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Don Toliver | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 3,901 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Drake | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,613 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · The Weeknd | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,556 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zach Bryan perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Zach Bryan | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 872 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Olivia Rodrigo | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 798 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Ariana Grande | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 664 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · SZA | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 559 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Tyler, The Creator | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 543 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Sabrina Carpenter | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 435 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Macklemore perform as the opening act in Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026? · Macklemore | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 419 | Dec 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ella Langley perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Ella Langley | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 409 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Ariana Grande | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 360 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Slayyyter perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Slayyyter | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 359 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Kendrick Lamar | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 335 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coldplay perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Coldplay | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 312 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Taylor Swift | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 284 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Billie Eilish | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 283 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Beyoncé | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 251 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miley Cyrus perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Miley Cyrus | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 247 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Harry Styles perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Harry Styles | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 220 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Doja Cat perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Doja Cat | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 218 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cardi B perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Cardi B | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 182 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ed Sheeran perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Ed Sheeran | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 134 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Justin Bieber | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 112 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cardi B perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Cardi B | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 93 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Harry Styles perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Harry Styles | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 90 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will KATSEYE perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · KATSEYE | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 61 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tame Impala perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Tame Impala | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 55 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will sombr perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · sombr | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 30 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Tate McRae | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 28 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Stray Kids | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 26 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Turnpike Troubadours perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Turnpike Troubadours | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 25 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will JENNIE perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · JENNIE | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 25 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Warren perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Alex Warren | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 22 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Mars perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Bruno Mars | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 21 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI? · Charli xcx | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 12 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Strokes perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · The Strokes | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will beabadoobee perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · beabadoobee | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 9 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Warren perform as musical guest in any episode of Saturday Night Live Season 52? · Alex Warren | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 8 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 61 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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