Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie by-election winner on Kalshi
If the NDP wins the next Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie federal by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Elections Canada.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the next Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie federal by-election? · Bloc | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 400 | Apr 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Conservative Party win the next Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie federal by-election? · Conservative | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 63 | Apr 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the NDP win the next Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie federal by-election? · NDP | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 48 | Apr 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Liberal Party win the next Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie federal by-election? · Liberal | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Apr 12, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.