Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Republican presidential primaries on Kalshi
If Thomas Massie wins the 2028 West Virginia Republican presidential nominating contest, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: US State Governments.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 255 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · J.D. Vance | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 396 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Marco Rubio | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 236 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 South Carolina Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 220 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 216 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Ted Cruz | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 148 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Florida Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 119 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Virginia Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Utah Republican caucus? · Marco Rubio | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 District of Columbia Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Ron DeSantis | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 98 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Tucker Carlson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 59 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 36 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 30 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 South Carolina Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 10 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 South Carolina Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus? · Thomas Massie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 West Virginia Republican primary? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 West Virginia Republican primary? · Tucker Carlson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 West Virginia Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 West Virginia Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 West Virginia Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Wisconsin Republican primary? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Wisconsin Republican primary? · Tucker Carlson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Wisconsin Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Wisconsin Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Wisconsin Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Washington Republican primary? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Washington Republican primary? · Tucker Carlson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Washington Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Washington Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Washington Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Vermont Republican primary? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Vermont Republican primary? · Tucker Carlson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Vermont Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Vermont Republican primary? · Marco Rubio | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Vermont Republican primary? · J.D. Vance | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Virginia Republican primary? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Virginia Republican primary? · Tucker Carlson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Virginia Republican primary? · Ron DeSantis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 255 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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