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what movie will have the highest score on Kalshi
If Dune: Part Three has the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Rotten Tomatoes.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Avengers: Doomsday | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 12,976 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dune: Part Three have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Dune: Part Three | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,270 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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