Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Republican Presidential ticket on Kalshi
If the Republican presidential nominee is Thomas Massie AND the Republican vice presidential nominee is Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Marco Rubio | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 24,169 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Erika Kirk be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Erika Kirk | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,181 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and JD Vance be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 13,618 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Elise Stefanik be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Elise Stefanik | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,943 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,957 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Donald Trump | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,796 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,497 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,884 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,819 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Donald Trump | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,778 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,216 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson and JD Vance be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Tucker Carlson and JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,276 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,851 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance and Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · JD Vance and Byron Donalds | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,527 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,676 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,576 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,224 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis and JD Vance be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Ron DeSantis and JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,182 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Donald Trump and Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,037 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 867 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 438 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 401 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 392 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 364 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket? · Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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