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RTX 5090 Monthly on Kalshi
If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $4.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ornn.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 95 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in December 2026? · Above $2.00 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 20,460 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in March 2027? · Above $2.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 11,618 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in December 2026? · Above $0.25 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10,670 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in March 2027? · Above $1.50 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 8,753 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in December 2026? · Above $1.50 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 7,431 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in November 2026? · Above $1.00 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,802 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in January 2027? · Above $1.50 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,678 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in March 2027? · Above $1.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 6,545 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in November 2026? · Above $0.75 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,323 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in February 2027? · Above $1.75 | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 6,010 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in February 2027? · Above $0.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,670 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in June 2027? · Above $2.00 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5,640 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in February 2027? · Above $2.00 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 5,508 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in February 2027? · Above $0.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,387 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in March 2027? · Above $1.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 5,377 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in April 2027? · Above $0.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,254 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in May 2027? · Above $2.00 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5,104 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in December 2026? · Above $1.75 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5,084 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in March 2027? · Above $0.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,906 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in November 2026? · Above $1.25 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,537 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in November 2026? · Above $1.75 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,459 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in May 2027? · Above $1.75 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,439 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in April 2027? · Above $0.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,105 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in December 2026? · Above $1.00 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,064 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in January 2027? · Above $0.50 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,897 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in November 2026? · Above $1.50 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,692 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in November 2026? · Above $0.25 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,626 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in April 2027? · Above $2.00 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,396 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in May 2027? · Above $1.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,286 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in June 2027? · Above $1.75 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,277 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in July 2027? · Above $1.00 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 3,255 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in December 2026? · Above $0.75 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 3,154 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in May 2027? · Above $1.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,076 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in March 2027? · Above $0.75 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 3,005 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in December 2026? · Above $0.50 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,692 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in June 2027? · Above $1.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,637 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in February 2027? · Above $1.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,570 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in April 2027? · Above $1.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,566 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in June 2027? · Above $0.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,526 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in November 2026? · Above $0.50 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,482 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 95 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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