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Spread on Kalshi
If Maldives wins by more than 2.5 goals in the India vs Maldives professional SAFF Championship soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India wins by more than 2.5 goals? · India wins by more than 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 128 | Nov 13, 09:30 UTC |
| Maldives wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Maldives wins by more than 2.5 goals | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 71 | Nov 13, 09:30 UTC |
| Maldives wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Maldives wins by more than 1.5 goals | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 20 | Nov 13, 09:30 UTC |
| India wins by more than 1.5 goals? · India wins by more than 1.5 goals | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 7 | Nov 13, 09:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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