What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.57.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 28% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Sapporo mayoral election winner on Kalshi

If Yoshitaka Ban wins the 2027 Sapporo mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Sapporo City Election Administration Commission.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

53% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
27¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.56	28.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Yoshitaka Ban win the 2027 Sapporo mayoral election? · Yoshitaka Ban	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	Apr 10, 14:00 UTC
Will Yu Arai win the 2027 Sapporo mayoral election? · Yu Arai	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	85%	Apr 10, 14:00 UTC
Will Takuya Irisawa win the 2027 Sapporo mayoral election? · Takuya Irisawa	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	Apr 10, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.