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Senate Appropriations ranking member on Kalshi
If Lisa Murkowski is the first Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Senate, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lisa Murkowski be Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations? · Lisa Murkowski | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 400 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Hoeven be Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations? · John Hoeven | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 18 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jerry Moran be Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations? · Jerry Moran | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 8 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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