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Starbucks Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Starbucks Corporation reports Above 341000 headcount in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 368 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 368 thousand | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,865 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -4.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -4.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,571 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -3.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -3.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 377 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 377 thousand | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,805 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 371 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 371 thousand | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,765 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 374 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 374 thousand | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 647 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 353 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 353 thousand | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 459 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 5.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 5.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 416 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 350 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 350 thousand | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 237 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 4.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 4.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 232 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 356 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 356 thousand | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 159 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 386 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 386 thousand | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 84 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 380 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 380 thousand | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 81 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 359 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 359 thousand | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 79 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 362 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 362 thousand | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 42 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,400 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,600 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,600 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 11 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 43,000 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 43,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 10 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 43,200 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 43,200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 6 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 389 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 389 thousand | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 5 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 383 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 383 thousand | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 4 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 341 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 341 thousand | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 344 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 344 thousand | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 347 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 347 thousand | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,800 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,800 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -2.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -2.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -1.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -1.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 6.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 6.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 3.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 3.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 2.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 2.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 1.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 1.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 0.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 0.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 365 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 365 thousand | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Feb 10, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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