Markets › Kalshi › Politics
SCOTUS writs of cert on Kalshi
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to Republican National Committee v. Eakin before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Supreme Court.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 19,112 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,809 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 7,358 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,195 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Republican National Committee v. Eakin | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,994 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,502 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Duncan v. Bonta | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,297 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? · Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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