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Supreme Court makeup on Kalshi
If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 9 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 0 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? · 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 11,947 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? · Not nine justices | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 10,691 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? · 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 6,769 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? · 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,304 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? · 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,154 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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