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SCOTUS members resigning on Kalshi
If Ketanji Brown Jackson resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Supreme Court.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term? · Samuel Alito | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 57,857 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term? · Clarence Thomas | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 48,628 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term? · Sonia Sotomayor | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 11,672 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term? · John Roberts | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 6,598 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term? · Amy Coney Barrett | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,213 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term? · Ketanji Brown Jackson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 370 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term? · Elena Kagan | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 80 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Neil Gorsuch resign during Trump's term? · Neil Gorsuch | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 14 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term? · Brett Kavanaugh | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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