What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 82¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.65.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 83% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 82%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

US Semiconductor production on Kalshi

If the percent change in U.S. industrial production for “Semiconductors and related electronic components” in 2026 is above 8, as reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.

Market says (typical open contract)

82%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

37% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
81¢ (now)	1.1¢	$0.66	82.1%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 14%	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,489	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 8%	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,100	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 18%	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	1,001	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 20%	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	704	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 22%	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	238	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 10%	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	225	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 12%	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	191	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 16%	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	146	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
How much will semiconductor production grow in the US this year? · Above 24%	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	39	Jan 17, 14:10 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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