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Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? on Kalshi
If Elizabeth Warren wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
0% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Chuck Schumer | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 784,028 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Chris Van Hollen | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 330,575 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Brian Schatz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 115,661 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Chris Murphy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 92,531 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cory Booker win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Cory Booker | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 77,355 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Elissa Slotkin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 73,232 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Jon Ossoff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 48,020 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Warner win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Mark Warner | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 35,853 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Patty Murray | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 23,385 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Raphael Warnock | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 21,203 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amy Klobuchar win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Amy Klobuchar | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 16,360 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tammy Baldwin win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Tammy Baldwin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 13,173 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Ruben Gallego | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 5,695 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elizabeth Warren win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Elizabeth Warren | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,713 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacky Rosen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? · Jacky Rosen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 2,757 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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