What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.20.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

IAR on Kalshi

If Jim Carlin wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

17% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Chuck Grassley	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	7,276	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Pat Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Pat Grassley	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	3,555	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Kari Lake	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	402	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Ashley Hinson	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	365	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Matt Whitaker	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	112	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Zach Nunn	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	9	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Jim Carlin	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Zach Lahn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Zach Lahn	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Mariannette Miller-Meeks be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Mariannette Miller-Meeks	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Joni Ernst be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Joni Ernst	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Brenna Bird be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Brenna Bird	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Randy Feenstra	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa? · Kim Reynolds	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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