Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Democratic nominee for New York Senate on Kalshi
If Letitia James wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III New York Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 14,681 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chuck Schumer be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Chuck Schumer | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 9,130 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Zohran Mamdani | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 746 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lina Khan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Lina Khan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 31 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Letitia James be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Letitia James | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Ritchie Torres | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pat Ryan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Pat Ryan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chi Ossé be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? · Chi Ossé | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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