Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania? on Kalshi
If Austin Davis wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chris Deluzio be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Chris Deluzio | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 5,819 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Summer Lee | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 5,539 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brendan Boyle be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Brendan Boyle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,323 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ahmed Moor be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Ahmed Moor | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,168 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Conor Lamb | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,928 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Fetterman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · John Fetterman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 802 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Chris Rabb | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 732 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Susan Wild | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 707 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bob Casey Jr. be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Bob Casey Jr. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 311 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Austin Davis be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Austin Davis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maria Collett be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Maria Collett | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mary Gay Scanlon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Mary Gay Scanlon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chrissy Houlahan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Chrissy Houlahan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Krasner be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Larry Krasner | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malcolm Kenyatta be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania? · Malcolm Kenyatta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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