What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 94¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 95% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 94%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democratic Senate seat count on Kalshi

If the Democratic Party holds at least 58 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

94%

Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
94¢ (now)	0.4¢	$0.21	94.4%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Democrats hold at least 57 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 57	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	413,931	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 56 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 56	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	278,645	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 55 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 55	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	178,210	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 53 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 53	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	177,962	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 54 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 54	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	142,183	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 58 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 58	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	132,155	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 52 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 52	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	107,153	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 51	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	106,818	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 50 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 50	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	75,816	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 49 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 49	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	61,630	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 48 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 48	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	32,476	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 55 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 55	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	23,784	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 47 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 47	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	17,536	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 46 Senate seats after the 2026 election? · At least 46	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	17,426	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 60 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 60	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	4,783	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 58 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 58	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	3,599	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 56 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 56	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	59%	2,145	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 54 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 54	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	1,867	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 53 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 53	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	1,789	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 50 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 50	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,348	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 51	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	19%	1,043	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 52 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 52	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	751	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 48 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 48	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	86	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 42 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 42	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	50	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 49 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 49	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 47 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 47	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 46 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 46	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold at least 44 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 44	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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