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Republican Senate seat count on Kalshi
If the Republican Party holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
30% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans hold at least 58 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 58 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,673 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 52 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 52 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 2,554 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 50 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 50 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,254 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 47 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 47 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,111 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 48 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 48 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 811 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 46 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 46 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 786 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 49 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 49 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 563 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 53 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 53 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 525 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 56 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 56 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 522 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 60 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 60 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 305 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 55 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 55 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 255 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 54 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 54 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 74 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 51 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 44 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 44 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold at least 42 Senate seats after the 2028 election? · At least 42 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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