What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.27.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 7% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Which Senate races will be within 5 points? on Kalshi

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Dakota falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Iowa Secretary of State, Alaska Division of Elections, Michigan Secretary of State - Bureau of Elections, Texas Secretary of State, Florida Department of State, Kansas Secretary of State, Ohio Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, South Carolina Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State - Bureau of Corporations, Elections and Commissions, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Nebraska Secretary of State.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

13% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Florida (special)	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	22,880	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Texas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,399	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Iowa	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	15,492	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · South Carolina	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,995	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Dakota be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · South Dakota	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	13,277	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · North Carolina	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,640	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Kansas	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	11,616	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Idaho be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Idaho	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	11,409	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Michigan	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	11,213	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Mississippi be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Mississippi	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,395	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Ohio (special)	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	7,193	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in New Hampshire be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · New Hampshire	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,807	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Alaska	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	4,458	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Maine	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	3,484	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Nebraska be decided by 5 percentage points or less? · Nebraska	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	2,135	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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