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Serie A Champion Winning Margin on Kalshi
If the Serie A champion wins the league by 15 or more points over the second-place team in the final official league table in the 2026-27 Serie A season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Serie A champion win by 0 to 1 points? · 0 to 1 points | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 26 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will the Serie A champion win by 2 to 3 points? · 2 to 3 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 21 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will the Serie A champion win by 8 to 10 points? · 8 to 10 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 17 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will the Serie A champion win by 4 to 7 points? · 4 to 7 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 17 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will the Serie A champion win by 15+ points? · 15+ points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will the Serie A champion win by 11 to 14 points? · 11 to 14 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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