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Annual KPI Sweetgreen on Kalshi
If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 9.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 12.5% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,383 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 12% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 4,402 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 15% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 15% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,070 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 13% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 13% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,955 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 13.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 13.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,875 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 9% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,583 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 9.5% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,543 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 15.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 15.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,309 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 11.5% | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 2,054 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 11% | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,467 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 10.5% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,053 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 14% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 460 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 10% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 180 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? · Above 14.5% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 79 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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