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Soccer Trophies on Kalshi
If Barcelona wins 4 trophies across the La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa de España, and the Champions League in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,863 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,645 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,562 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,547 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,482 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,279 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,114 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 986 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 913 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 899 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chelsea win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 755 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 702 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 680 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 571 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 549 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 440 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 438 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 416 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 407 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chelsea win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 359 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chelsea win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3 Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 295 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 292 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 282 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 2+ Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 214 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 202 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season? · 1+ Trophies | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 151 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3 Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 139 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 3+ Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 93 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season? · 4 Trophies | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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