What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Sonora cattle import suspension days on Kalshi

If United States imports of live cattle from Sonora, Mexico, are suspended for a cumulative total of at least 90 calendar days between November 6, 2026 and March 31, 2027, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: MS Now, ABC, Fox News, Associated Press, White House, BBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CBS, NBC, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, The Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg News, Federal Register, the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Sonora cattle imports suspended for at least 90 days? · 90 days or more	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	100,008	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Sonora cattle imports suspended for at least 120 days? · 120 days or more	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	23	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Sonora cattle imports suspended for at least 60 days? · 60 days or more	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Sonora cattle imports suspended for at least 30 days? · 30 days or more	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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