Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Companies added to SP500 on Kalshi
If Zoom is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: S&P Global.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · SoFi | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 563 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Cloudflare | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 530 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · SpaceX | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 523 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Astera Labs be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Astera Labs | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 471 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Okta be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Okta | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 450 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 405 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Twilio be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Twilio | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 399 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Credo Technology be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Credo Technology | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 359 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cheniere Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Cheniere Energy | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 358 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BWX Technologies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · BWX Technologies | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 324 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will MongoDB be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · MongoDB | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 280 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Affirm Holdings | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 246 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HEICO be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · HEICO | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 240 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Roblox be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Roblox | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 201 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Guidewire Software be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Guidewire Software | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Duolingo be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Duolingo | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Circle Internet Group be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Circle Internet Group | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ATI be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · ATI | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 181 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rocket Companies be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Rocket Companies | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 175 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Medline be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Medline | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 138 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Zoom be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Zoom | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 110 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Strategy (MicroStrategy) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 16 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Curtiss-Wright be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Curtiss-Wright | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Toast | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Venture Global be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Venture Global | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tradeweb Markets be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Tradeweb Markets | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will TPG be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · TPG | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Talen Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Talen Energy | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Atlassian be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Atlassian | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Snowflake be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Snowflake | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Southern Copper be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Southern Copper | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Natera be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Natera | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will LPL Financial be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · LPL Financial | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · CoreWeave | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cerebras be added to the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Cerebras | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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