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SpaceX launches on Kalshi
If SpaceX has more than 9 launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: SpaceX.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 160 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 192,331 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 180 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 139,336 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 140 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 106,583 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 170 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 98,141 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 150 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 59,137 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 210 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 54,145 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 190 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 48,554 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 120 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 44,450 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Dec 2026? · Above 145 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 43,675 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · Above 200 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35,546 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 9 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 32,258 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 8 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 19,662 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 17,645 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 11 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,013 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 7 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 8,525 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 13 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,682 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 12 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,393 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 6 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,172 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 14 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 102 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 16 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Nov 2026? · Above 15 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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