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SpaceX Starship launch on Kalshi
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: SpaceX.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
81% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 59¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.44 | 60.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13, 2026 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 55,994 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026? · Before Nov 27, 2026 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 20,452 | Nov 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026? · Before Dec 11, 2026 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,173 | Dec 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 15, 2026? · Before Nov 15, 2026 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 44 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 14, 2026? · Before Nov 14, 2026 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 42 | Nov 14, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.