Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Who will be in the next Spanish government? on Kalshi
If a coalition that includes Vox make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the government of Spain, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain? · Frente Amplio | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,400 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain? · Vox | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,145 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain? · People's Party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 66 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain? · PSOE | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 37 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain? · Podemos | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Basque Nationalist Party be a part of the next government in Spain? · Basque Nationalist Party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Más Madrid be a part of the next government in Spain? · Más Madrid | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Junts per Catalunya be a part of the next government in Spain? · Junts per Catalunya | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the United Left be a part of the next government in Spain? · United Left | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Left of Catalonia be a part of the next government in Spain? · Republican Left of Catalonia | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Comuns be a part of the next government in Spain? · Comuns | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will EH Bildu be a part of the next government in Spain? · EH Bildu | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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