Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Spain General Election Voter Turnout on Kalshi
If at least 28,000,000 valid and null ballots are cast in the November 29, 2026 Spanish general election for the Congress of Deputies, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spanish Ministry of the Interior, Junta Electoral Central.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 25,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 25,500,000 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 6,796 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 27,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 27,500,000 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 6,218 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 26,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 26,000,000 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 412 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 26,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 26,500,000 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 267 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 27,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 27,000,000 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 200 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 25,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 25,000,000 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 200 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 28,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 28,000,000 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 24,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 24,500,000 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 24,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 24,000,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 23,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 23,500,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 23,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 23,000,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 22,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 22,500,000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
| Will at least 22,000,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election? · At least 22,000,000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 06, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.