What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 12¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.08.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 13% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 12%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

When will Spotify release wrapped? on Kalshi

If Spotify releases 2026 Wrapped to the public before Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Amazon Prime, Apple App Store and Google Play Store, Ars Technica, Bloomberg News, Disney+, entity, entity's official social media accounts, entity's official website, HBO Max, Hulu, IGN, major news outlets including The New York Times, Netflix, Polygon, Reuters, SEC filings, Steam, TechCrunch, the Associated Press, the Federal Register, The Hollywood Reporter, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Variety.

Market says (typical open contract)

12%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

24% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.08	12.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Dec 3, 2026	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	5,309	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Dec 2, 2026	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	4,138	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Dec 5, 2026	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	2,152	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Dec 4, 2026	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	1,691	Dec 04, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Nov 29, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	860	Nov 29, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Nov 27, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	518	Nov 27, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Dec 1, 2026	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	244	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Nov 28, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	97	Nov 28, 04:59 UTC
When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped? · Before Nov 30, 2026	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	82	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.