What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.20.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

USDC USDT total on Kalshi

If the sum of the market capitalization, rounded to two decimal places, of USDC and USDT is above $400 billion on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CoinGecko.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

17% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $260 billion	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	57%	845	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $250 billion	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	367	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $270 billion	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	212	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $220 billion	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	191	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $350 billion	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	120	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $240 billion	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	45%	65	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $400 billion	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $320 billion	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $310 billion	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $300 billion	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $290 billion	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? · Above $280 billion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.