Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Which state laws will pass? on Kalshi
If legislation that would require affirmative opt-in authorization before processing consumer health data not covered by HIPAA has become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: geography’s official government websites, major newspapers in geography.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clean Energy Affordability Rewrite become law in Massachusetts before Jan 1, 2027? · Clean Energy Affordability Rewrite | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 511 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will $15 Minimum Wage by 2029 become law in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2027? · $15 Minimum Wage by 2029 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 487 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AI Anti-Discrimination become law in California before Jan 1, 2027? · AI Anti-Discrimination | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 405 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Companion AI Protection Act become law in Illinois before Jan 1, 2027? · Companion AI Protection Act | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 400 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Health Information Privacy Act become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027? · Health Information Privacy Act | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 347 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Drag Show Restrictions become law in Ohio before Jan 1, 2027? · Drag Show Restrictions | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 256 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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