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State legislature winners on Kalshi
If the Republican party wins the North Carolina State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 77¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.80 | 78.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the North Carolina State Senate? · Democratic party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 207,317 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the North Carolina State Senate? · Republican party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 61,456 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the Alaska State Senate? · Democratic party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 46,422 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the Alaska State Senate? · Republican party | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 28,616 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the Alaska State House? · Republican party | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 13,644 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the Alaska State House? · Democratic party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 6,726 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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