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Alaska Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Alaska Senate District T, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Alaska Division of Elections, Associated Press, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 90 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 1 election? · Republican party | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 100 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 1 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 78 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District T election? · Republican party | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District T election? · Democratic party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District R election? · Republican party | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District R election? · Democratic party | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District P election? · Republican party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District P election? · Democratic party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District N election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District N election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District L election? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District L election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District J election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District J election? · Democratic party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District H election? · Republican party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District H election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District F election? · Republican party | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District F election? · Democratic party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District D election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District D election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District B election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska Senate District B election? · Democratic party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 40 election? · Republican party | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 40 election? · Democratic party | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 39 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 39 election? · Democratic party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 38 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 38 election? · Democratic party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 36 election? · Republican party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 36 election? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 35 election? · Republican party | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 35 election? · Democratic party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 34 election? · Republican party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 34 election? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 33 election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 33 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 32 election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 32 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 31 election? · Republican party | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Alaska House District 31 election? · Democratic party | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 90 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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