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Massachusetts Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Massachusetts Senate Cape and Islands District, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 398 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts House 7th Plymouth District election? · Republican party | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Cape and Islands District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Cape and Islands District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Plymouth and Barnstable District election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Plymouth and Barnstable District election? · Democratic party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Republican party | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Democratic party | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Republican party | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Democratic party | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Republican party | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Bristol and Plymouth District election? · Democratic party | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Bristol and Norfolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Bristol and Norfolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Plymouth and Norfolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Plymouth and Norfolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Norfolk, Plymouth, and Bristol District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Norfolk, Plymouth, and Bristol District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Norfolk and Plymouth District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Norfolk and Plymouth District election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Plymouth and Norfolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Plymouth and Norfolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Suffolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Suffolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Suffolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Suffolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Suffolk and Middlesex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Suffolk and Middlesex District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Middlesex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Middlesex District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Middlesex and Suffolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate Middlesex and Suffolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Suffolk District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Suffolk District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Essex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 3rd Essex District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 5th Middlesex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 5th Middlesex District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Essex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 2nd Essex District election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Massachusetts Senate 1st Essex and Middlesex District election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 398 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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