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New Mexico Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for New Mexico Senate District 42, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New Mexico Secretary of State, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 224 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 12 election? · Democratic party | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 42 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 42 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 41 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 41 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 40 election? · Republican party | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 40 election? · Democratic party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 39 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 39 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 38 election? · Republican party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 38 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 37 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 37 election? · Democratic party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 36 election? · Republican party | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 36 election? · Democratic party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 35 election? · Republican party | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 35 election? · Democratic party | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 34 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 34 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 33 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 33 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 32 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 32 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 31 election? · Republican party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 31 election? · Democratic party | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 30 election? · Republican party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 30 election? · Democratic party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 29 election? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 29 election? · Democratic party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 28 election? · Republican party | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 28 election? · Democratic party | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 27 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 27 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 26 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 26 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 25 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 25 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 24 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 24 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Mexico Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 224 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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