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Washington Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Washington Senate District 49, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York Times, Washington Secretary of State, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 246 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 49 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 49 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 41 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 41 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 40 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 40 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 39 election? · Republican party | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 39 election? · Democratic party | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 28 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 28 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 27 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 27 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 25 election? · Republican party | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 25 election? · Democratic party | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 24 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 24 election? · Democratic party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 23 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 22 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 22 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 20 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 20 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 19 election? · Republican party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 19 election? · Democratic party | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 18 election? · Republican party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 18 election? · Democratic party | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 17 election? · Republican party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 17 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 16 election? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 16 election? · Democratic party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 14 election? · Republican party | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 14 election? · Democratic party | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 12 election? · Republican party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 12 election? · Democratic party | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 11 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 11 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 10 election? · Republican party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 10 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 9 election? · Republican party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 9 election? · Democratic party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 246 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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