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Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 98 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 108.5 ? · Above 108.5 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,133 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 78 ? · Above 78 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 696 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 89.5 ? · Above 89.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 381 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 93.5 ? · Above 93.5 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 280 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 85.5 ? · Above 85.5 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 205 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 82 ? · Above 82 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 162 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 98 ? · Above 98 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 70.5 ? · Above 70.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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