What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Super Bowl ads on Kalshi

If Tubi airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2027 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC Sports, Ad Age, Bloomberg News, CBS Sports, CNN, ESPN, FOX Sports, Marketing Land, NBC Sports, Reuters, Sports Business Journal, STAT News, the Associated Press, The Hollywood Reporter, the National Football League, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Variety.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Allstate run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Allstate	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	6,271	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · SpaceX	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	4,723	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will DoorDash run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · DoorDash	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	4,527	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Zyn run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Zyn	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	3,709	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · OpenAI / ChatGPT	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	3,578	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Amazon Prime run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Amazon Prime	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	3,165	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Jeep run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Jeep	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,129	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Disney+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Disney+	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	2,104	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Nike run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Nike	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	93%	1,946	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Gemini run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Gemini	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	1,871	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Anthropic / Claude run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Anthropic / Claude	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	1,659	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Paramount+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Paramount+	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	1,598	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Coinbase run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Coinbase	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	65%	1,488	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Spotify run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Spotify	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	1,463	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Grok run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Grok	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,148	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Temu run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Temu	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	1,114	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Liquid Death run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Liquid Death	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	704	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Hims & Hers run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Hims & Hers	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	253	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Base44 / Wix run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Base44 / Wix	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	191	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Oakley run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Oakley	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	145	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Tubi run an ad during the Big Game 2027? · Tubi	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Feb 15, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.