Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Who will be in the next Swedish government? on Kalshi
If a coalition that includes Swedish Social Democratic Party make up the next elected ruling government of Sweden before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Government Offices of Sweden, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liberals be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Liberals | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 9,355 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Centre Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Centre Party | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 8,420 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Left Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Left Party | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 8,413 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sweden Democrats be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Sweden Democrats | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,057 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Moderate Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Moderate Party | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 4,958 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian Democrats be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Christian Democrats | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,927 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Green Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Green Party | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,631 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Swedish Social Democratic Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? · Swedish Social Democratic Party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,363 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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