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Which November Swiss referendums will pass on Kalshi
If Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Materiel passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Swiss Federal Chancellery, Swiss Federal Statistical Office.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fireworks Initiative pass? · Fireworks Initiative | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,519 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will AHV VAT financing pass? · AHV VAT financing | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,316 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass? · Fair taxes for married couples | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 1,147 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will War Materiel Act amendment pass? · War Materiel Act amendment | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1,142 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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