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How many Texas counties will James Talarico win in 2026? on Kalshi
If the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico is at least 44 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Texas Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
100%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 99¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.04 | 99.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 44 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 44 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,372 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 24 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 24 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,483 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 20 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 20 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,200 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 40 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 40 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 3,625 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 30 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 30 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,289 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 42 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 42 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,093 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 28 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 28 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,428 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 32 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 32 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,408 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 34 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 34 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,435 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 22 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 22 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,288 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 26 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 26 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,242 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 38 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 38 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 126 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Texas counties won by James Talarico be at least 36 in the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election? · At least 36 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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